Oil markets are moving closer to a high-risk phase as hopes rise for a possible US-Iran deal. Analysts warn that delays in diplomacy could push global energy systems into severe instability, with rising pressure on supply chains and prices. Tensions linked to Donald Trump’s Operation Epic Fury and the wider Middle East conflict have already shaken confidence in energy flows. One of the biggest risks remains the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for global oil shipments. Any disruption there quickly impacts global prices. At one point, crude oil prices in the spot market briefly surged toward the $100 mark as fears grew over supply cuts. Traders say the market has not fully stabilised, even though prices have not yet reached extreme highs. Several short-term measures have helped avoid a deeper crisis. Countries released emergency oil reserves. Some Gulf producers also rerouted exports through pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, weaker demand from China has helped slow the pressure, with some analysts saying stockpiles may have been drawn down. Despite these steps, global supply buffers are shrinking fast. The International Energy Agency has warned that oil inventories are falling at a record pace. It says this trend could create major volatility as the world enters the peak summer demand season. Energy analysts now warn of a possible tipping point. If stocks continue to fall, markets could face what experts call demand destruction. This means prices rise so high that consumers and industries are forced to cut use, slowing economic activity. Hamad Hussain of Capital Economics said the situation could become severe if supply routes stay restricted. He warned that Brent crude could climb to between $130 and $140 per barrel if shortages deepen. He also said such a rise could force sharp cuts in demand and damage global growth. A similar warning came from Natasha Kaneva at JPMorgan Chase. She said oil markets may shift from a managed adjustment to a forced one. In that case, consumers would reduce driving, airlines would cut flights, and industries would slow production. A broader warning also came from the Institute for International Finance. It said the shock is now spreading beyond oil into liquefied natural gas, fertilisers, shipping, and industrial goods. It described this as a deeper breakdown in global supply reliability. The group added that even if oil prices sometimes ease on news of peace talks, other costs may stay high. It said markets are now dealing with a wider system problem, not just a shortage of crude oil. In the United States, the economy has been partly protected because the country is a net oil exporter. However, consumers still feel the impact. Research by Professor Jeff Colgan shows that American households have already paid around $40bn in extra fuel costs since the crisis began. Higher energy prices are also feeding inflation in many countries. Governments are now trying to limit demand through policy measures. Some are encouraging reduced fuel use, while others are managing industrial energy consumption to avoid shortages. There is still uncertainty over any US-Iran agreement. Even if a deal is reached, it is not clear whether full shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz will return quickly. Some experts expect only a partial recovery in normal trade flows. Markets remain highly sensitive to political news. Any breakdown in talks could push prices sharply higher again. That would raise inflation risks and could slow global economic growth further. For now, analysts say the world is walking a narrow path. A deal could ease pressure, but delays could push oil markets into a far more unstable phase where both shortages and recession fears grow at the same time.