US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran early Saturday morning have raised fears of a wider conflict and possible oil price spikes of $10 to $20 per barrel. President Trump announced the strikes aimed to target Iran’s nuclear program and potentially remove its ruling regime. Trump confirmed on Truth Social that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had been killed, though no further details were provided. The strikes prompted immediate Iranian retaliation, raising concern among energy markets about potential disruption to global oil supplies. Brent crude, the international benchmark, closed Friday above $72.80 per barrel, up nearly 2.9%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose over 2.8% to trade above $67. Analysts warned that prices could surge further if no deescalation occurs. Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said, “Most of the strategic initiative now lies with Iran. How Tehran responds over the next 24 to 72 hours, especially toward energy infrastructure or shipping, will drive near-term oil market dynamics.” The airstrikes came after US-Iran negotiations ended without a deal, despite efforts by Oman’s foreign minister to mediate. Iran responded by launching missiles at US military assets and Gulf states, including Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. Reports indicated attacks on key locations in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, as well as multiple airports across the region. US forces targeted Tehran compounds, including Khamenei’s primary residence, intensifying tensions. Analysts warned that without signs of immediate de-escalation, oil prices could spike $10 to $20 per barrel once markets reopen. A broader conflict involving Gulf oil infrastructure could drive prices even higher. Trump said the US operation aims to dismantle Iran’s nuclear capabilities, weaken its navy, and disrupt financial support for regional proxy groups. Over the past two months, the US has deployed its largest airpower presence in the Middle East since 2003, adding geopolitical risk premiums to oil prices. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping chokepoint where one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes daily, is a key concern. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned that “no ship is allowed to pass the Strait,” though full closure would be highly challenging. Past attacks on tankers and naval mines in the Strait have already caused price volatility, and shipping suspensions by major oil companies followed the strikes. Rystad Energy notes that while previous US-Iran airstrikes caused temporary oil spikes, this round of retaliation appears broader, with a higher risk of affecting oil exports. Iran, a founding member of OPEC+, produces roughly 3.4 million barrels per day, around 4% of global supply, exporting mostly to China. OPEC+ is set to hold its monthly meeting on Sunday. Industry speculation suggests the bloc may increase production quotas beyond the previously expected 137,000 barrels per day. León said, “Raising production may slightly reduce upward pressure on prices, but heightened geopolitical risks will dominate market movements.” Despite the military action, Trump framed the strikes as a message to Iran’s leadership and citizens. He urged the Iranian military to surrender or face “certain death” and encouraged protesters to challenge the regime. The conflict’s outcome over the coming days will likely determine both regional stability and global oil market trends. With tensions rising in Tehran and across the Gulf, energy markets are preparing for extreme volatility. Analysts warn that any additional escalation targeting shipping lanes or oil infrastructure could cause dramatic price surges, directly impacting global fuel costs.